There are precious few events where racecourse operators from around the world gather to share best practice and guide the future direction of the sport. In fact, these events are few and far between within national boundaries as well. The Asian Racing Conference, staged as a precursor to the world’s richest race in Riyadh, the $20m Saudi Cup, is one such event.
Attended by representatives from all the major racing nations from the UK & Ireland to Australia and the Far East, with a smattering of US interest thrown in, the Conference is a fascinating dive into how different jurisdictions are coping with challenges brought about by economic or social conditions.
On the face of it, this might appear far-removed from the experience of Fakenham, operating largely for an audience within Norfolk, or at least, East Anglia. Yet the world is becoming a smaller place, and trends appearing thousands of miles distant can reverberate at a parochial level even in Norfolk.
Here are some of the challenges racing faces over the next few years.
Breeding trends
Foal crops
Most of National Hunt racing’s breeding stock now stems from flat-bred cast-offs which haven’t made the grade, and which populate Horses In Training sales as three year olds. However, there has been a global decline in the foal crop of no less than 35% over the past 20 years, most marked in the US and Australia. The decline is still marked in the UK and Ireland. Less stock means higher prices at auction, or a necessary contraction in the racing programme to deal with lower horse populations in training in order to maintain field sizes. This is at the heart of governance issues between the sport’s governing body and racecourses within the UK, who currently own the rights to stage fixtures.
Yearling Sales
Followers of the sport can readily find news of top prices being paid for well-bred thoroughbreds, for flat or jumps. Yearling sales, a key barometer of the health of the sport overall, show a robust growth at the very top of the market, but a middle and lower market falling away. Whilst top store horses sold at Tattersalls at Cheltenham may catch headlines, breeders’ margins on lower profile stock are, at best, marginal, and the smaller owner-breeder cadre has shrunk.
Active stallions & broodmares
Over the millennium to date, there has been a 47% reduction in active stallions, and a corresponding drop in broodmares down to 123,000. This all indicates a slowing in the production of horses.
Dilution of the racing programme
At the same time, the opportunity for top flight horses to avoid each other has grown as Group I races on the flat have propagated up to 430. This is replicated to a lesser extent in the Pattern programme for Jump horses, amply illustrated in the ability of top chasers to avoid each other at the Cheltenham Festival through the choice of Grade I opportunities at 2m, 2m4f and 3m2f.
Wagering Trends
Racing’s share of the global betting market continues to be eroded by other sports betting and by e-gaming. A share of 22% in 2020 has plummeted to 13% in 2025, although the major events are bucking that trend. A wide choice of betting alternatives consistently erodes racing’s traditional share, not least prediction markets.
Headwinds facing racing
If this sounds a death knell for racing, then think again. Great brains are at work to combat these challenges and to adapt. But the challenges are real:
Racing’s inability to overcome fragmentation, and its tendency to fight within itself do it no favours. We should be collaborating and sharing expertise to grow a larger slice of a growing leisure spend, both within national boundaries and internationally.
We should also be collaborating internationally to combat illegal betting operators, whose global turnover now exceeds £3.5tr (yes, trillion), fostered by the explosion of crypto currencies.
We also need to think laterally to respond to growth in online gaming.
And we need to continue to nurture our messaging to sustain our social licence around racing animals. You only have to see where greyhound racing in new Zealand, and nearer to home, in Wales, has been legislated into history, to understand we may be next in the firing line.
Summary
There is an old adage that a sneeze in the Indian Ocean creates a hurricane in Cuba. Racing at Fakenham does not operate in a bubble, and is affected by global trends, even if its ability to shape those trends is limited.
All is far from lost however. Innovation can allow us to adapt successfully to changing circumstances and maintain the unique nature of a day at Fakenham, and I’m reassured that those tasked with the global direction of our sport are responding to these problems with solutions of their own, worked through collaboration and sharing of best practice.
